Has CRE hit the bottom? Is it starting to get better? These are the questions Jeff Reeves tries to answer in his latest article.
The problem with this question is that it leaves off a key component- locality.
I think that broad national stats are reassuring, but essentially worthless. Yes, Reeves is writing for a national audience and I don't fault him that. But CRE, like all real estate, is an inherently local business.
Miami and Washington, D.C. have had a great year. Charleston I am told had a so-so year. The Savannah market was on fire- blazing- all 2012. And as soon as the first dredging shovel hits the bottom of the Savannah River, West Chatham is going to explode with development.
A frequent question similar to the article's title was "When will the other economic shoe drop?" Well, again, where are you expecting a shoe to fall? There was no one humongous shoe, but a million little ones. Each market was affected differently.
Reeves' article uses office as a measure of CRE health- and it is an excellent choice. When companies hire, they need a place to do work, so office vacancy rates are a direct correlation to the health of U.S. employment.
National office vacancy rates could not sink past the 17% mark all year. So things aren't getting worse, they might get better or they could stay the same for a while. Half way through 2012, Savannah's office vacancy rate got just below 20%. Not great having 1 out of 5 offices vacant. But downtown Savannah's vacancy is around 9%.
But in an incredibly risky $30 mil gamble, the Cay Building was built downtown and pre-leased 96% at $35/SF. That's 96% of 71,000SF. Wow.
Would I buy an office building for an investment? Not unless I had a lease agreement in place with a tenant who would lease said building. Otherwise if I wanted to buy office space low and have potential to sell high I'd invest in an office REIT.
Invest smart, not spec. Think local, not general.
Update on 1/16/13. Genesis Capital also weighs in on office markets as a sign of market health.
A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga
The problem with this question is that it leaves off a key component- locality.
I think that broad national stats are reassuring, but essentially worthless. Yes, Reeves is writing for a national audience and I don't fault him that. But CRE, like all real estate, is an inherently local business.
Miami and Washington, D.C. have had a great year. Charleston I am told had a so-so year. The Savannah market was on fire- blazing- all 2012. And as soon as the first dredging shovel hits the bottom of the Savannah River, West Chatham is going to explode with development.
A frequent question similar to the article's title was "When will the other economic shoe drop?" Well, again, where are you expecting a shoe to fall? There was no one humongous shoe, but a million little ones. Each market was affected differently.
Reeves' article uses office as a measure of CRE health- and it is an excellent choice. When companies hire, they need a place to do work, so office vacancy rates are a direct correlation to the health of U.S. employment.
National office vacancy rates could not sink past the 17% mark all year. So things aren't getting worse, they might get better or they could stay the same for a while. Half way through 2012, Savannah's office vacancy rate got just below 20%. Not great having 1 out of 5 offices vacant. But downtown Savannah's vacancy is around 9%.
But in an incredibly risky $30 mil gamble, the Cay Building was built downtown and pre-leased 96% at $35/SF. That's 96% of 71,000SF. Wow.
Would I buy an office building for an investment? Not unless I had a lease agreement in place with a tenant who would lease said building. Otherwise if I wanted to buy office space low and have potential to sell high I'd invest in an office REIT.
Invest smart, not spec. Think local, not general.
Update on 1/16/13. Genesis Capital also weighs in on office markets as a sign of market health.
A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga
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