Last Friday night I went out for drinks with an investment banker, a financial advisor, an accountant and the owner of a remodeling business.
As the evening relaxed (e.g. Booze!), I mentioned I was going to New York in May and June for meetings regarding distressed assets to drum up some business. The banker asked me, and I'll paraphrase, "Don't you think you'll be wasting your time speaking to those people? Don't you think the worst is behind us and bank owned properties are dwindling?"
And I said, "No, I think that this [2009-present] is just Round One."
And the banker said, "I agree!"
Why did we agree? Well, the systemic causes that lead to the recession are still in place: consumer debt, over-leveraged banks and business, and corruption on Wall Street. And now we're betting that sovereign leverage is the way to go. We have been told that pre-crash normalcy is returning because housing prices are increasing, the stock market is reaching new heights, CRE is back, gold prices are down, etc... And we are told that all this is inherent, indigenous... like creativity without a source.
But there is a source: low interest rates. An interest rate is how much you pay to borrow money. Banks don't make money with annualized interest rates of 3.25% or whatever it is today. But we have low interest rates to encourage people to borrow money to buy things. As an example, Americans are buying cars left and right and European manufacturers are depending on us. Did you know that about 80% of vehicle purchases are financed right now?
When you read in the paper that a million dollar property sold to whoever, chances are they did not pay cash, but borrowed most of the money for the acquisition. The low interest rates for CRE debt means more people will risk an investment.
But what happens when interest rates increase? Suddenly that debt costs more even though you may have "locked it in" and less goes to the principal. People may take less risks and buy less property. Small rate increases aren't a problem. Big rate hikes are.
This article explains that "low interest rates are one of the only things supporting commercial real estate prices." The author concludes that
The banker and I are hedging by betting that our future income will come from the sale of more distressed properties coming to market as the rates increase. And we're both hoping people will have the means to buy. Got an income producing property in sight? Is it a good calculated risk? Jump on it now!
A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga
912-790-6999
As the evening relaxed (e.g. Booze!), I mentioned I was going to New York in May and June for meetings regarding distressed assets to drum up some business. The banker asked me, and I'll paraphrase, "Don't you think you'll be wasting your time speaking to those people? Don't you think the worst is behind us and bank owned properties are dwindling?"
And I said, "No, I think that this [2009-present] is just Round One."
And the banker said, "I agree!"
Why did we agree? Well, the systemic causes that lead to the recession are still in place: consumer debt, over-leveraged banks and business, and corruption on Wall Street. And now we're betting that sovereign leverage is the way to go. We have been told that pre-crash normalcy is returning because housing prices are increasing, the stock market is reaching new heights, CRE is back, gold prices are down, etc... And we are told that all this is inherent, indigenous... like creativity without a source.
But there is a source: low interest rates. An interest rate is how much you pay to borrow money. Banks don't make money with annualized interest rates of 3.25% or whatever it is today. But we have low interest rates to encourage people to borrow money to buy things. As an example, Americans are buying cars left and right and European manufacturers are depending on us. Did you know that about 80% of vehicle purchases are financed right now?
When you read in the paper that a million dollar property sold to whoever, chances are they did not pay cash, but borrowed most of the money for the acquisition. The low interest rates for CRE debt means more people will risk an investment.
But what happens when interest rates increase? Suddenly that debt costs more even though you may have "locked it in" and less goes to the principal. People may take less risks and buy less property. Small rate increases aren't a problem. Big rate hikes are.
This article explains that "low interest rates are one of the only things supporting commercial real estate prices." The author concludes that
"Cap rates are close to their historic lows for most property classes. At the same time, other commercial real estate fundamentals are still weak. This apparent disconnect- low cap rates and weak fundamentals- has prompted some observers to question the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy. The concern is that low rates may be boosting commercial real estate prices excessively."But on the surface things look great! So let's focus on arguments that the market is nuanced, complex, dynamic, etc...
The banker and I are hedging by betting that our future income will come from the sale of more distressed properties coming to market as the rates increase. And we're both hoping people will have the means to buy. Got an income producing property in sight? Is it a good calculated risk? Jump on it now!
A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga
912-790-6999
