Fiscal Cliff Hogwash

I don't claim to know it all, but when I read JLL reports projecting increased growth and the benefits of the fiscal cliff, I have to wonder if as an industry we only see the trees and not the forest. Which also happens to be on fire.

Core markets (D.C., Chicago, L.A., New York, Atlanta, San Fransisco, etc) that are seats of industry and goverment will almost always do well. And there are smaller markets, like Savannah, that have the real estate throttle wide open.

The problem is that articles glossing over the fiscal cliff, Patient Protection and Affordable Care act, Up-Eurs Zone volitility, etc. make a key error. They presume that decreased uncertainty will equal increased economic growth. Such is not the case.

In his acceptance speech Obama did reduce uncertainty and make some very specific tax proposals. In particular, he promised to:

• Raise the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6%.
• Raise the top short-term capital gains tax rate to 39.6%.
• Raise the top long-term capital gains tax rate from 15% to 20%.
• Raise the top tax on dividends from 15% to 39.6%. There will also be an additional 3.8% tax on dividends as of January 1.
• Replace the alternative minimum tax with the "Buffett Rule." That means the highest income-earners will pay a minimum 30% tax rate on wages, interest, dividends and capital gains.
• Raise the estate tax rate from 35% to 45%.

Every day bits of "Obamacare" are translated into Treasury code and released to the public. These new rules are not reported by media, but their effects are. Layoffs, decreased hours, diminished bonuses, hiring freezes are now daily reports.

In unrelated news, inflation has ticked up, jobless claims are up, poverty rates are spiking.

How can going over "the fiscal cliff" possibly help commercial real estate or the economy as a whole?

The authors gush "Continued low interest rates will prompt people to buy!" True, but lending standards are still tight because banks don't want to lend money if they can't make a decent profit. They'd rather keep the cash in excess reserves for the Fed to pay them interest on.

"Less uncertainty in healthcare means more real estate deals!" I've lost two medical office deals due to the new certainty of taxes and regulation in the last month.

Let's get real about the fiscal cliff: there won't be one. Obama owns this budget deficit now. He must act on it or his legacy will be mud. When has Congress ever had a problem compromising to let federal spending continue?

A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga

Refinance to plan for employment uncertainty

I had lunch yesterday with a mortgage broker, a digital advertiser and a flooring wholesaler. Apart from Thanksgiving and Disney World plans, conversation mostly concerned the regulations that are published as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act legislation is turned into Treasury code. Everyone there except for me (being self-employed) is concerned about the potential impact on their employment.

If your employment contract is likely to be renegotiated to comply with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, it is an idea to refinance your property NOW.

You could reduce your monthly payment and capture low interest rates for the next 20 - 30 years. If you are concerned your hours may be cut to 28 per week, that $200 month savings on your mortgage will come in handy!


Lenders I recommend:

For residential:

Kirsten Ray, IKON Financial
9 one two-354-eight 555

400 Mall Blvd, Ste G
Savannah, GA, 31406

Lucy Bukowiec, BB&T Mortgage
912-9 two one-8752
http://www.bbt.com/lbukowiec

326 Mall Blvdsavannah, ga, 31406
United States

For commercial:

Deepika Paul, EVP, United Community Bank
912-2 three five-3147

8201 White Bluff Road
Savannah, GA, 31406

Anne-Marie Jones, First Citizens Bank
912-23 one-two 194
13 E. York Street
Savannah, GA, 31401

And the attorney to handle it:
TJ Hollis, Lee Black Rouse and Hollis
Nine one 2-355-0023
7395 Hodgson Memorial Drive.
Savannah, GA 31406 

 

A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga

New Savannah Real Estate Scam Artist

Absentee Home Owners Beware!

Five vacant homes in Savannah this week have been unlawfully rented out by a man saying his name is Lafayette. He claims he is the home owner and rents the property to unsuspecting tenants.

"Lafayette" even goes as far as having updates done to the home like new paint. Four of the homes belong to investors and one was listed by one of our REALTORS.

Please check your vacant homes personally or call your REALTOR. The Savannah-Chatham Police department has a case open. If this happens to you please contact them at 912.651.6675. Also you might want to check Craigs List to make sure your properties are not listed there for rent.


A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga

Blizzards on Eisenhower Drive

No, not weather resulting from Hurricane Sandy, but rather the construction of a new Dairy Queen at the southeast corner or Hodgson Memorial and Eisenhower Drives.

I am relieved that another prominent corner is not going to become another gas station / future brownfield. I believe this is the same group that owns local KFCs and Taco Bells.

A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga

AJ&C Garfunkel buys Abercorn Common

The Savannah Morning News reports that David Garfunkel with AJ&C Garfunkel purchased Abercorn Commons for $24.2 million on Thursday.

Considering KimCo paid $40 million for Chatham Plaza in June 2007 and sold Largo Plaza in March for $10 million, this seems like a heck of good deal.

Kudos to the Garfunkels for bringing the development back to local owners and keeping the it in the local economy! Next step is to get the center back up to 100% occupancy, which won't take them long at all.

Read the full article at Local investor buys Abercorn Common

A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga

Atlanta developer to build luxury outlet mall near Savannah

This project has been in the works for the last five years and I am glad to finally see it coming to fruition!

Posted: October 10, 2012 - 12:38am  |  Updated: October 10, 2012 - 7:46am
Reported in the Savannah Morning News by Mary Mayle 

The company that built the Mall of Georgia in Gwinnett County and the upscale St. John’s Town Center in Jacksonville, Fla., is planning a 560,000-square-foot luxury outlet mall in Pooler.

The Outlet Mall of Georgia is projected to open in the summer of 2014 in the southwest quadrant of I-95 and Pooler Parkway with four anchor stores, a food court, restaurants and a wide variety of shops.

The proposed $200-million project is set to break ground next spring and would create as many as 2,000 construction jobs, according to Ben Carter of Ben Carter Enterprises. When fully open, the mall would create between 1,700 and 2,000 retail jobs, Carter said Tuesday.

The 170-acre site will accommodate another half-million square feet for peripheral retail and hotel construction.

While financing is not complete and he would not name potential tenants, pre-leasing has begun, with interest from a number of high-end retailers, Carter said.

Abercrombie, Brooks Brothers, Coach and Louis Vuitton are among the tenants in the Jacksonville mall.

“From a visitor’s perspective, one of things that is missing here is really quality retail,” Carter said.

The Savannah engineering and architectural firm Kern-Coleman is working with Carter on the project.

Carter’s unscheduled presentation came at the end of the Savannah Economic Development Authority’s monthly meeting and was greeted with enthusiasm.

“The announcement today that Ben Carter is developing a luxury outlet mall in Chatham County is fantastic news,” said David Paddison, SEDA board chairman. “In addition to the massive construction investment, job creation and additional tax revenues, the Outlet Mall of Georgia will be a significant amenity for our residents, visitors and the millions of travelers passing through the I-95 corridor.

“This will be the signature outlet project on I-95 between Florida and Virginia”

Savannah is the second largest tourism market on the regional coast with 12 million tourists per year compared to Myrtle Beach at 14 million, Charleston at 4 million St. Augustine, Fla., at 3.4 million and Hilton Head Island at 2 million, according to Carter’s research.

“The closest comparable malls along the I-95 corridor are in Virginia and Florida,” he said. “While the Savannah regional trade area alone would not be sufficient to support a mall of this size, the tourist and traffic counts along the interstate more than make up for that.”

Traffic counts on I-95 run approximately 68,000 vehicles a day or 24.7 million annually.

“This is going to be huge for Pooler and all of Chatham County,” said Pooler Mayor Mike Lamb. “This is the shopping piece we’ve been looking for to make us a more complete city.”

Pooler has been in the bulls eye of targeted growth in the area for the last decade, and Lamb credited city council and staff with helping the city make good growth decisions. “We are ready for this,” he said. “Ben Carter Enterprises is the real deal, and we really appreciate them choosing our city.”

Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce President Bill Hubbard agreed.

“There’s a lot of work still to be done, but this is a great organizaion with tremendous capability,” he said.

“We are eager to help in any way we can.”

Read more about the Outlet Mall of Georgia at Upscale outlet mall proposed for Pooler and Atlanta developer to Ben Carter build luxury outlet mall near Savannah.  

A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga

The Last Time This Indicator Flashed Buy Was 2002

Just read this entire article. It is too good to minimize with a summary.

Alternatively, read the full article at The Last Time This Indicator Flashed Buy Was 2002.

Oct 9th, 2012 | By Chris Mayer

I just locked down a 2.875% interest rate, fixed for the 15-year term of the mortgage. No points. With rates like these, I find myself rethinking the idea that I want to pay off my mortgage.

I can do a lot better than 2.875% investing the money. If I just sock it away in gold, I bet I’ll come out way ahead. Finding investments that clear such a low hurdle is not that difficult. This is true especially in commercial real estate, where you can use modest leverage and lock up tenants in long-term leases. You make money on the difference.

Right now is a great time to do this, if looked at from a historical perspective…

The 10-year Treasury rate is 1.64% as I write. That is what investors are willing to accept to lend money to the U.S. Treasury for a 10-year term. It seems absolutely crazy. But the Treasury rate we see is something of a forced smile.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, as you know, pledges to keep rates low. So interest rates — probably the most important prices in the whole constellation of prices — are essentially the victim of price fixing. This will have sickening consequences down the road for the U.S. economy, the stock market, the U.S. dollar and more. But for now, it is a license to print money by borrowing cheaply and investing in property.

To see why, you have to understand that Treasury rates are the platforms on which borrowing rates stand. I was a banker before I started writing newsletters. I remember following the “Treasury curve” (all the Treasury rates for different terms) with great interest because we priced our loans off Treasury rates. So if I were in banking today, I might quote a rate of 250 basis points over the 10-year Treasury rate. That would be 1.64% plus 2.50%, for a rate of 4.14%. The rate would change as the Treasury rate changed, or until locked in.

So that’s why Treasury rates are so important. Now let’s look at cap rates.

A cap rate is a real estate term you should know. It’s easy and intuitive to understand. It is basically the annual return you earn as an owner in the property. So if you buy a building for a million bucks and it generates $100,000/yr in profits for you after expenses, then the property has a 10% cap rate. (The $100,000 divided by your $1 million purchase price.)

The cap rates available in the real estate world are attractive when viewed against the 10-year Treasury yield. A wider spread between the two means you can earn a wider profit margin. As you can see in the nearby chart, the post-2008 spread is the widest it’s been since the great 2002 bottom.

From 2002, the NAREIT Index — composed of real estate investment trusts, or REITs —earned nearly a threefold total return over the next five years. That’s pretty good. And I think the odds favor you this time around as well.

There are differences, of course, and I don’t expect an exact replay. In 2002, the NAREIT Index yielded 7%, versus just 4% today. But the spread is more important than the raw yield. And the spread we have today is wide — if only artificially because of the actions of the Fed.

So I think this idea — as with almost all investment ideas — has a time window. When the low interest rate party starts to get into the wee hours and the barmen look ready to make a last call, we’ll have to diligently step for the exit to beat the rush. That won’t happen until at least 2014.

Another caveat to my bullish real estate call is that you have to be a little picky. Not everything is cheap. Already, some of the best properties in the biggest cities are at full price. Here is a snapshot of the cap rates in the central business districts of four American cities that shows you the big differences in markets:

You get much better value if you look at secondary cities.

As I’ve noted before, the opportunity in real estate is especially attractive because there is still a lot of debt coming due. Including 2012, and through 2016, there is $1.7 trillion in commercial real estate debt coming due. (In Europe, there is nearly a trillion dollars of debt maturing in just the next three years.) Borrowers will have to refinance that pile. They will likely have to put cash in the deal — or sell. The latter creates great opportunities for buyers of real estate.

My own 2.875% mortgage reminded me of the advantages afforded those with good credit and their ability to borrow at super-attractive rates. The same is true in the corporate world. Now is the best time to use these advantages in real estate since 2002.

Sincerely,

Chris Mayer
 
A. Joseph Marshall
Coldwell Banker Commercial
Commercial Real Estate Advisor
Savannah, Ga